The Virus Outbreak Thread

Meanlucario
Silly Pony - Celebrated the 13th anniversary of MLP:FIM, and 40 years of MLP!
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Solar Guardian - Refused to surrender in the face of the Lunar rebellion and showed utmost loyalty to the Solar Empire (April Fools 2023).
Roseluck - Had their OC in the 2023 Derpibooru Collab.
King Sombra - Celebrated the 10th anniversary of The Crystal Empire!
A Lovely Nightmare Night - Celebrated the 12th anniversary of MLP:FIM!
Princess of Love - Extra special version for those who participated in the Canterlot Wedding 10th anniversary event by contributing art.
Elements of Harmony - Had an OC in the 2022 Community Collab
Non-Fungible Trixie -
Kinship Through Differences - Celebrated the 11th anniversary of MLP:FIM!

Time to get spooky
@MagpulPony  
They can do that and still rush it so that the long-term effects don’t show up, or they don’t take in account important variables due to it taking up too much time.
lonewolf
Lunar Guardian - Earned a place among the ranks of the most loyal New Lunar Republic soldiers (April Fools 2023).
Non-Fungible Trixie -
Wallet After Summer Sale -
Friendship, Art, and Magic (2018) - Celebrated Derpibooru's six year anniversary with friends.
Magical Inkwell - Wrote MLP fanfiction consisting of at least around 1.5k words, and has a verified link to the platform of their choice
Friendship, Art, and Magic (2017) - Celebrated Derpibooru's five year anniversary with friends.
An Artist Who Rocks - 100+ images under their artist tag
Artist -

U mad?
@Meanlucario
 
If the side effects of the one Australia is working on (that Wiimeiser posted about a few days ago) are any indication, waiting until it’s perfected is worth it. If it has a ton of side effects (some of which are worse than the virus itself) no one will want to take it.
Wiimeiser
Solar Supporter - Fought against the New Lunar Republic rebellion on the side of the Solar Deity (April Fools 2023).
Roseluck - Had their OC in the 2023 Derpibooru Collab.
Elements of Harmony - Had an OC in the 2022 Community Collab
Twinkling Balloon - Took part in the 2021 community collab.
My Little Pony - 1992 Edition
Friendship, Art, and Magic (2020) - Took part in the 2020 Community Collab
Dream Come True! - Participated in the MLP 9th Anniversary Event
Wallet After Summer Sale -
A Tale For The Ages - Celebrated MLP's 35th Anniversary and FiM's 8th Anniversary
An Artist Who Rocks - 100+ images under their artist tag

(Foil Hat)
Unemployment here is at 10%. 450,000 more Australians will be unemployed by October, the vast supermajority here in Victoria.
 
And have you seen the state of the hotel quarantine bungle here? It looks like something out of S.T.A.L.K.E.R. or the SCP Foundation.
 
@lonewolf  
Actually I just made those up to show a possible worst case scenario. Don’t take that post seriously. It was my tinfoil hat showing.
Zincy
Solar Supporter - Fought against the New Lunar Republic rebellion on the side of the Solar Deity (April Fools 2023).
Non-Fungible Trixie -
Friendship, Art, and Magic (2020) - Took part in the 2020 Community Collab
Wallet After Summer Sale -
The End wasn't The End - Found a new home after the great exodus of 2012

In Vino Veritas
Another day, another miracle cure.
 
This weeks entry, convalescent plasma.
 
Trump and Azar claim that it reduces mortality rates by 35%. Except we have no proof that it does, and the actual EUA doesn’t state that either. When the Mayo clinic tested it in June, the 7 day morality rate (number of people who died within a 7 day window) dropped to 8.6 % compared to 12%. This was, however, not a true test. There was no control group to compare. The study was just designed to be a set-up for actual randomized, controlled experiments.
 
Even if this treatment works, 3ish% is a far cry from “35”. Skipping the clinical trial phase is bad form. You may think that this all would amount to a real world trial…but there are major flaws with that line of thinking. I’ve struggled to articulate why mass treatments based on limited data is so damaging in a way that is easy for laymen to understand, but thankfully a dude from Oxford summed it up.
 
“The biggest problem with an EUA for convalescent plasma therapy is that we will not know if it works, as the EUA essentially causes clinicians to give the treatment rather than entering patients in clinical trials. There may also be a rationing problem as it may be in short supply.” Dr. Duncan Young.
 
And
 
“Bottom line for EUA is this: if you end up hospitalized, your doctor won’t know if plasma is helpful or not. That’s why we do science. And EUA sets us back. Makes it harder to do science right.” Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute.
 
 
 
Science does not work like Ork tec. Just because you wish it so, does not make it so.
Ebalosus
Lunar Supporter - Helped forge New Lunar Republic's freedom in the face of the Solar Empire's oppressive tyrannical regime (April Fools 2023).
Silver Bit -
Sapphire -
Happy Derpy! -
Bronze Supporter -
The End wasn't The End - Found a new home after the great exodus of 2012

Build commie blocks!
@Zincy
 
Yeah, far too many people fail to realise that science is A) a collaborative effort, and B) involves a shitload of trial-and-error. Even if you have a vaccine in a technical sense, that doesn’t mean you have an effective, reproducible, and safe vaccine.
Zincy
Solar Supporter - Fought against the New Lunar Republic rebellion on the side of the Solar Deity (April Fools 2023).
Non-Fungible Trixie -
Friendship, Art, and Magic (2020) - Took part in the 2020 Community Collab
Wallet After Summer Sale -
The End wasn't The End - Found a new home after the great exodus of 2012

In Vino Veritas
@lonewolf
 
Re-infection does not mean no immunity.
 
Re-infection typically means endemic mutations, which is expected. No virus ends a pandemic the same virus that started it. You’ll see a growing but small percentage of the population get re-infected either from mutations that occurred locally, or from mutations that happened elsewhere and were imported.
 
This is why slowing the virus is so important. The more we can force it to burn out in areas, the more we can cut down on re-infections.
Zincy
Solar Supporter - Fought against the New Lunar Republic rebellion on the side of the Solar Deity (April Fools 2023).
Non-Fungible Trixie -
Friendship, Art, and Magic (2020) - Took part in the 2020 Community Collab
Wallet After Summer Sale -
The End wasn't The End - Found a new home after the great exodus of 2012

In Vino Veritas
This pandemic did give me a rather amusing moment of satisfaction.
 
Early on, I was in a room full of business, econ, and org majors (as the lone psychologist) discussing what effects, if any, covid would have on the world. Particularly when it came to the economy. Would it be a true black swan, or just a passing blip.
 
Everyone in the room was convinced on the latter. Predicting it would last all of a month, with minimal disruptions. This was some time in late January, early February, so long before the shutdowns.
 
I was the lone voice that said it would be a black swan.
 
Some of my colleagues pointed to positive data out of China that the infection was waning, my response was “it’s fucking China, you can’t believe them”.
 
They said it was tracking like the flu. Except I mentioned that there seemed to be an elevated rate of asymptomatic carriers and an overly long incubation period. Two hallmarks of a virus with pandemic potential.
 
We went back and forth for an hour or so, I remained the one person in the room waving the red flags.
 
 
 
I hate being right sometimes.
Meanlucario
Silly Pony - Celebrated the 13th anniversary of MLP:FIM, and 40 years of MLP!
Shimmering Smile - Celebrated the 10th anniversary of Equestria Girls!
Solar Guardian - Refused to surrender in the face of the Lunar rebellion and showed utmost loyalty to the Solar Empire (April Fools 2023).
Roseluck - Had their OC in the 2023 Derpibooru Collab.
King Sombra - Celebrated the 10th anniversary of The Crystal Empire!
A Lovely Nightmare Night - Celebrated the 12th anniversary of MLP:FIM!
Princess of Love - Extra special version for those who participated in the Canterlot Wedding 10th anniversary event by contributing art.
Elements of Harmony - Had an OC in the 2022 Community Collab
Non-Fungible Trixie -
Kinship Through Differences - Celebrated the 11th anniversary of MLP:FIM!

Time to get spooky
@Zincy  
Didn’t something like that happen in Harry Potter, where Dumby D warns people that Noseless is returning and everyone is like “oh that Dumbledore, on that cocaine again.”
NamelessNP
Glim Glam - Derpi Supporter
Lunar Supporter - Helped forge New Lunar Republic's freedom in the face of the Solar Empire's oppressive tyrannical regime (April Fools 2023).
Non-Fungible Trixie -
My Little Pony - 1992 Edition
Wallet After Summer Sale -
Ruby -
Perfect Pony Plot Provider - Uploader of 10+ images with 350 upvotes or more (Questionable/Explicit)
Equality - In our state, we do not stand out.
Bronze Supporter - Bronze Patron
Not a Llama - Happy April Fools Day!

Starlight and Sunny Fan
So now there’s people trying to spread the idea that only 9,210 people in the US have died from COVID-19 and the rest of the 180k+ died from other serious health issues
 
This conspiracy theory stuff is beyond insane
Background Pony #39BC
While it is likely some deaths technically wouldn’t have been caused by COVID-19, I doubt, however, that they got it quite that wrong.
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