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The Virus Outbreak Thread

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Started by NitroFury
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RD4590
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Vortex Clipper
0.97 R rate is dangerously high because it means when you got 1000 new cases yesterday and you get 970 new cases today. And the model assumes a constant rate of recovery, which is not realistic. 0.97 R rate is far from “contained”.
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RD4590
Solar Supporter - Fought against the New Lunar Republic rebellion on the side of the Solar Deity (April Fools 2023).
Toola Roola - For helping others attend the 2019 Community Collab
Friendship, Art, and Magic (2019) - Celebrated Derpibooru's seventh year anniversary with friends
Artist -

Vortex Clipper
It is only contained when you get below 10 cases everyday per state, or when there’s an affordable cure for patients.
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Background Pony #09C1
@RD4590  
0.97 R rate is dangerously high because it means when you got 1000 new cases yesterday and you get 970 new cases today. And the model assumes a constant rate of recovery, which is not realistic. 0.97 R rate is far from “contained”.
 
It is only contained when you get below 10 cases everyday per state, or when there’s an affordable cure for patients.
 
Understandable.
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Background Pony #8FB3
@RD4590  
I’m not sure where your R-Values are coming from, but
 
NY:0.91  
CA:0.86  
TX:0.97
 
The goal should be below 1.0, at that rate it is declining. The hope is to get it below 0. This is also not the only relevent statistic when analyzing COVID. Florida has done well considering how they have handled COVID while opening up.
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Background Pony #88CC
@RD4590  
The R-value itself is an unwieldy tool that needs to be recalculate constantly. A goal of sub 1.0 is a perfectly fine target for what we are dealing with.
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Background Pony #88CC
@Background Pony #09C1  
It probably is just differing statistics, R value isn’t just an easily pulled statistical number to show you how your state or country is doing right now. It’s not the end all be all of COVID.
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Background Pony #EBAB
@Background Pony #09C1  
Oh boy.
 
……………I hate my life. Why are a lot of people so freaking hopeless and stupid? I just want this pandemic to end. But no, it won’t end. It’s bouncing back, no thanks to the hate against vaccines! My god, I hate being right about this pandemic never going to end!
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