Background Pony #22EE
Don’t forget “Horse Play”.
Something else that really bugs me in School Raze is how they discover what’s going on through a letter Starswirl sends.Um… hey Starswirl, how do you know this? Did this happen before and if so how did you solve it?
Starswirl is a magical genius. The greatest sorceror of his generation, and knower of things Twilight doesn’t. He probably sensed that magic was beginning to ebb away, ran some tests, and made a model of it’s predicted trajectory.
Don’t forget “Horse Play”.
“Once upon a time, before Celestia, Equestria was suffering terrible hardship. Raising the sun every morning was so hard, it took five great sorcerers plus Star Swirl the Bearded to do it. And every day, the unicorns helping Star Swirl would use so much magic, they lost their powers forever. Things looked bleak. Soon, Equestria would lose all its magic users! Then, the land would be covered in darkness for eternity!”
Star Swirl is probably extremely familiar with the signs of ponies losing their magical ability, because he lived through a time period in which every day pretty much guaranteed something like that happening. He’s probably forgotten more about magic draining than most ponies in Equestria will ever know.