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Well if the pony isn't dead he will be soon. Shock from blood lose is already playing hell with his core body temperature, he's out of the water but his clothes are soaked providing very little protection, on top of that the swells are still drenching him and it is cold enough that it is snowing. After 10 minutes in that water (Assuming his body is similar to a human, maybe add a few minutes because fur) He will start to lose motor function and within an hour he will be dudead, less because of blood lose.

Well if the pony isn't dead he will be soon. Shock from blood lose is already playing hell with his core body temperature, he's out of the water but his clothes are soaked providing very little protection, on top of that the swlls are still drenching him and it is cold enough that it is snowing. After 10 minutes in that water (Assuming his body is similar to a human, maybe add a few minutes because fur) He will start to lose motor function and within an hour he will be dude, less because of blood lose.