Away from shore, deep water at night, it’s unlikely his body would be found.
His time is running short now, it would be miracle if he survives this.
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Alone, scared, nobody to help him. When he pulled on his speedo and waded into the water, he never anticipated he’d be dead in a half-hour, strong stallion’s don’t drown, right? Big Mac was like so many, overconfident of his swimming abilities, that because he could swim and that he was strong, that everything would be fine. But tiredness and the sudden spike of fright it brings can weaken even the strongest pony. He had swum out way too far, unable to swim back. With his sister’s sleeping, there was nopony who knew where he was and the danger he was in. It became a self-fulfilling prophesy, the more he panicked, the more energy he used, the less skilled his stroke and the more he struggled out in the deep blue.
If he doesn’t return, the only thing he sisters would have had go on is that his speedo is missing, putting two and two together would tell them what happened, by then far too late, it would be unlikely, although not impossible his corpse washes up.
Sea Ponies or those aided by magic could be sent in as divers to search for the body, finding his speedo-clad form down deep, moved position by currents.
All because he swam alone.