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The shadow just appeared after the group left the room.
So it’s possible it didn’t see Twilight.
If it was Tirek, then why didn’t Tirek know there was a fourth Princess?
Coincidence? Yes. It’s still just a theory. It doesn’t matter how much proof you have or how convincing you make your arguments (which yours isn’t, you just listed a couple vague similarities.) The only way it’s not going to stop being just a theory is if the episode’s writers directly confirm exactly what the figure in that scene is.
That shadow was Tirek. There are a lot of proof to make the connection.
Coincidence? I think not!
No, the shadow pony thing was never actually explained. The possibility of it being Tirek is just a popular theory.
I don’t think it was forced at all.