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Looks like it’s a probability of something.
1{x(t)=i, x(t+1)=j} only equals 1 if x(t) is i and x(t+1) is j, and is 0 otherwise.
aij^1{x(t)=i, x(t+1)=j} is thus only meaningful in the product when x(t)=i and x(t+1)=j, because otherwise this term will just be 1.
I suspect the equation is describing the total probability of M*M variables (labeled a11, a12, …, a1M, a21, …, a2M, …, aMM) taking on a specific set of possible values through T time steps. Each step’s value is only dependent on the previous step’s value.