Imma go stats nerd for a second.
So, awhile back, I made mention that dems were doing well in special elections and that while individual elections are not very predictive, trend lines are.
It’s been a few months and a bunch of special elections have came and went. There’s been around 30 special elections this year, in all different states and localities. Dems have won in a good majority of them, which is good news. Better news is that they over-performed in all of them. Excluding the Wisconsin SC race as it was not a special election though a unique one, dems have over-performed by an average of 10-11 points.
This continues a trend from last year, where dems were also over-performing in special elections in the months leading up to Republicans having the worst mid-term election for a party out of power on modern history.
In fact, the trend has accelerated. Dems are overperforming more this year than the year leading up to the mid-term.
This trend has been wildly predictive over the years. With only one year, 97-98 breaking the trend. Coinciding with some spicy political events.
It is not a 100% guarantee nor does it mean that dems will over-perform in 2024 by 11 points. If they did, btw, just for funnizes, they would win super majorities in both chambers and win the presidential election.
Highly unlikely mind you. However, the trend has been pretty spot on in showing that the party that keeps that streak going almost always goes on to over-perform.
Republicans are trying to protect a razor thin, unpopular majority in the house while trying to make gains in the Senate. Even a slight dem over-performance could see that slip away.
And if dems somehow massively over-perform, which while unlikely is not outside the realm of possibilities, you could see Biden carried into a term on dem super majorities.
Also of note, dems have been massively over-performing in the handful of VA special elections, and the republican controlled VA House is the most unpopular of the state branches, the Dem Senate and Republican governor both maintain positive ratings.
We have an election this year. And while dems were expected to retain the senate due to map advantages the House was up in the air. If dems over-perform here in VA, it would be another indicator that the climate in the US is very much not on Republicans side.