Today we will see if abortion continues to be a winning issue for dems. Ohio, Virginia, and New Jersey are specifically bellwethers for it.
Ohio is obvious, abortion is directly on the ballot. Ohio smashed early voting records in almost every district, and polling has been universally favorable for both issues. A broad plurality of voters support both.
Virginia, dems have put abortion front and center in the competitive senate and house races, almost all of which are suburban areas around VAs three most populous urban centers. Abortion and reproductive rights ranks as a firm second place in the mind of voters according to polls, and is #1 with women voters. The economy, education, and crime all rank in 1, 3, and 4 respectively. Dems have outraised and outspent reps in every competitive district, and have some in-built advantages. Republicans however have a popular governor, and have tried to confront the abortion issue in a slightly different way with their “15 week limit”. Polling indicates, however, that a vast majority of VA voters wants the abortion laws to either stay the same, or loosen, with only around 32% being in favor of tighter ones.
In NJ, while very few people are predicting Republicans flipping control of the legislature, they are looking to make gains and test the contours of democrats abortion messaging in states where it is unlikely that abortion will be restricted. Hoping that voter apathy on the issue will give them some breathing room.