Dems are reporting enthusiasm to vote that is reaching 2008 levels, and have now eclipsed Republicans by several points.
The mythical “enthusiasm gap” doesn’t always portend success or failure, but it does tend to help.
The fact that the enthusiasm levels have steadily increased makes me somewhat confident that it’s more than just formerly depressed dems being happy for “anyone but Biden” and instead seems to be mostly driven by Harris and Walz themselves.
This also suggests that the “Harris Honeymoon” that the Republicans have been banking on might not be a real thing. Or at least not as potent of a thing as they would hope.
It’s about to cross over into September, when lots of early voting starts, and not only has Kamala maintained her momentum, but has actually gained on it.
Baring a steep, and I mean “falling into the void” steep, drop off in support, I see her as favored to win.
There just aren’t any real big roadblocks between now and when all the early voting starts that could really trip her up.
She did fine in her interview, Trump’s team continues to step in it, and I highly doubt that she’ll stumble in the debate like Biden did.
That just leaves an “October surprise”, but I’m struggling to think of anything that really could happen. The economy is strong, OPEC is planning to go ahead with their output boosts, we’re expecting a rate cut in September, border crossings are at a yearly low…